In the field of finance and investment, trust is of paramount importance. Nevertheless, some unscrupulous traders exploit this trust to set up sophisticated scams based on the manipulation of forecasts. These schemes may initially appear to be legitimate, but in fact they are based on deception and rely on fortuitous circumstances. This article will examine a case study of a scam in order to illustrate how such an operation can be carried out and to highlight the dangers inherent in this practice.

Scenario creation

Consider a scenario in which a financial advisor is presenting financial forecasts to a group of clients. The objective is to showcase an exceptional capacity for anticipating market trends. However, instead of relying on meticulous analysis, the advisor employs a strategy that involves the manipulation of forecasts. This approach could be operationalized as follows:

1. The initial step is to divide the customer base into two equal groups. For illustrative purposes, consider a scenario where there are 100 customers. In this case, the customer base can be divided into two groups of 50 customers each. A buy signal should be sent to Group A, while a sell signal should be sent to Group B.
2. Should the market move in favor of the buy signal, this would be an advantageous turn of events. Consequently, Group A experiences a gain. Group B, which received a sell signal, may not experience the same favorable outcomes and may incur a loss.
3. At this juncture, it is advisable to select only those members of Group A that have demonstrated positive results and divide them into two groups once more.
4. A new buy signal should be sent to one half of the group, while the other half is sent a sell signal.
5. The process should be repeated, with only those who have previously demonstrated accurate predictions being selected. It is important to foster the belief that the individual in question possesses exceptional predictive abilities.

It is clear that our objective is not to develop fraudulent systems, disseminate existing ones, or instruct fraudsters in their use. Instead, discussing such systems helps to prevent damage by ensuring that internet users are aware of the ease with which they can become victims of fraud. As individuals gain experience in online trading, the knowledge they acquire, the tests they undertake, and their personal development will make it almost second nature to identify these situations and, in all likelihood, avoid the loss of capital.